HKTDC lifts 2026 Hong Kong export growth forecast to 42%-47% on AI demand

September 28, 2026, 11:24Source: ACN Newswire: Artificial Intelligence

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has raised its forecast for Hong Kong's 2026 merchandise export growth to 42%-47%, citing much stronger global demand for AI-related technologies than expected. The council says electronics, led by semiconductors and memory chips, are the main driver.

Key points

HKTDC raised its 2026 Hong Kong merchandise export growth forecast to 42%-47%.
Electronics made up about 80% of exports in the first eight months of 2026 and rose 52.8% year-on-year.
Exports to the US rose 63.4% year-on-year in that period despite a July 12.5% Section 301 tariff.
The Export Confidence Index (3Q26) showed a Current Performance Index of 51.8 and an Expectation Index of 51.3.
The HKTDC says exports are shifting toward high-value, technology-intensive products and air freight.

AI hardware drives the upgrade

The HKTDC announced the revised forecast at a press conference on 28 September 2026. It described the upgrade as major and tied it to the rapid acceleration of worldwide demand for AI-related products and infrastructure.

HKTDC Director of Research Bruce Pang said demand for semiconductors, memory chips, computer components, telecommunications equipment and other advanced electronics "expanded much faster than expected", providing substantial support to Hong Kong's exports.

According to the HKTDC, electronics accounted for approximately 80% of Hong Kong's total exports in the first eight months of 2026. Electronics exports rose by 52.8% year-on-year, well above overall export growth. The main markets were the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN and the US. The council pointed to items linked to investment in AI infrastructure, cloud computing, data centres and next-generation digital technologies.

Broad regional trade and a tariff test

The HKTDC says the strength is not limited to a narrow group of products. Deputy Director of Research Wing Chu said exports of a broad range of conventional electronic parts and components have continued to perform strongly, and that export performance across many traditional industries has remained broadly stable. The council describes ASEAN as one of Hong Kong's most dynamic export destinations and says the Chinese Mainland's high-technology manufacturing sector has stayed in expansion territory.

US trade policy adds uncertainty. In July, the United States imposed an additional 12.5% Section 301 tariff on imports from a number of trading partners, including the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong. Even so, Hong Kong's exports to the US rose by 63.4% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2026.

Pang said the direct impact on Hong Kong exports is expected to be limited, because a substantial share of exports to the US consists of products covered by tariff exemption arrangements, particularly in technology and electronics. He also pointed to the September Xi-Trump meeting, the extension of the trade truce until January 2027 and the US$30 billion Reciprocal Tariff Reduction Arrangement as sources of stability.

The latest HKTDC Export Confidence Index (3Q26) shows exporter sentiment remains broadly positive. The Current Performance Index stood at 51.8 and the Expectation Index at 51.3, both above the neutral 50-point threshold.

A shift toward high-value trade

The HKTDC argues the trend is more than a cyclical upswing. According to its research, Hong Kong's exports are increasingly concentrated in high-value, technology-intensive products such as integrated circuits, computer parts and advanced telecommunications equipment, which are replacing traditional lower-value, bulk merchandise as key contributors to growth.

This has raised reliance on air freight. The council says Hong Kong's air cargo network, together with land transport links to manufacturing clusters in Southern China, has strengthened its position as a leading high-value trade and logistics hub. Chu said the city is handling products that are compact but exceptionally high in value, and described an evolution from a traditional trading gateway into a high-value-added international trade and supply chain management centre.

Outlook and risks

The HKTDC expects exports to keep solid momentum through the rest of 2026, supported by resilient global demand for technology products and strong manufacturing and trade activity in the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN.

Risks remain. Kenneth Lee, Section Head of Special Project & Business Advisory, listed geopolitical tensions, volatility in energy and commodity markets, and rising protectionist measures in certain economies as headwinds. He added that international consumption has stayed relatively resilient, so clothing, watches and clocks, and jewellery have continued to deliver stable export performance alongside the technology-related industries.

For exporters and logistics operators, the figures show how closely Hong Kong's trade now tracks the global AI hardware cycle, while the council's own caution about external uncertainty suggests the outlook depends on demand for technology products holding up.