UNIDIR: Five tech trends are reshaping maritime security and testing arms control

Lower barriers to power at sea

The commentary, published by the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) on 29 October 2026, starts from the point that the logic of maritime security has not changed: States need to know who is doing what and where, which activities pose a threat and how best to respond. What has changed is the technological environment.

According to UNIDIR, small, cheap and increasingly autonomous systems can now threaten much larger vessels and pose a serious risk to critical infrastructure. These capabilities were once the preserve of sophisticated navies but are becoming more accessible, including to non-State actors. UNIDIR research found just one attack using an uncrewed maritime system in 2019. By 2024 the annual figure had risen more than 2,000%, and the author expects the trajectory to have become even steeper in 2026.

A second trend is that the oceans are becoming more transparent. Artificial intelligence, satellites, advanced detection systems, fibre-optic sensing and the automated fusion of varied data streams are improving awareness of activity above and below the surface. The commentary cautions that this has strategic consequences, especially where concealment is of paramount concern, as with submarine-based nuclear deterrence.

Digital dependence and arms control gaps

The third trend is the growing interdependence of the maritime and digital domains. Maritime operations rely on digital systems, while the digital economy depends on physical infrastructure at sea. The commentary notes that more than 99% of data moving between continents travels by subsea cable. Ports now operate as complex digital ecosystems, and a successful cyberattack on a single vulnerability within them can be enough to paralyse a whole web of global supply chains, according to the text. Disruption in one domain can quickly cascade into others.

The fourth trend is illicit trafficking in conventional arms, which the commentary says exacerbates armed violence, organized crime and conflict and undermines the implementation of Security Council arms embargoes and other arms control measures. For that reason, it argues, maritime security and conventional arms control should be seen as mutually reinforcing objectives.

The fifth concerns the instruments themselves. The United Nations Register of Conventional Arms builds trust through reporting on conventional arms transfers, including warships. But armed, uncrewed maritime systems may fall outside the Register's technical descriptions and definitions of a "warship", which focus on tonnage and missile or torpedo range. Multilateral arms control frameworks, the commentary says, need to evolve with maritime capabilities.

Three priorities and the role of the Security Council

From these trends UNIDIR draws three priorities.

• Resilience for States and industry. The maritime domain is too vast and interconnected to be secured by protecting every vessel, port, cable or offshore installation, and some disruption is inevitable. Security must therefore include the ability to anticipate threats, absorb shocks, restore essential functions and adapt. Because much of the infrastructure is run by commercial actors, public-private cooperation will be fundamental.
• Illicit arms movements. Strengthening existing international frameworks on the transfer, diversion and trafficking of conventional arms would, in UNIDIR's view, create a virtuous circle in which a more secure maritime domain leads to better maritime governance and more effective implementation of arms control commitments.
• Sustained and systematic attention, particularly from the Security Council. The commentary says the Council has led on structured engagement with cross-cutting issues and that maritime security warrants the same treatment, founded on continuous scanning of the technological horizon.

The commentary also points to the recent establishment of the Informal Expert Group on Science and Technology as a positive and meaningful step towards integrating the security implications of emerging technologies into the Council's activities. UNIDIR says its dedicated maritime security workstream stands ready to support the Council and the wider international community.

What it means

The commentary is a policy argument rather than a research release, but it highlights where UNIDIR sees pressure points: definitions in arms control registers that may not cover armed uncrewed vessels, commercially operated infrastructure that governments cannot defend alone, and the strategic effects of better ocean surveillance. Its conclusion is that with the right approach, States can keep pace with these changes, build resilience and keep the seas safe, secure and stable in the years and decades to come.