Epoch AI: Broadcom TPU shipments doubled to nearly 2M H100-equivalents

November 4, 2026Source: Epoch AI

Broadcom's TPU compute shipments doubled between fiscal Q2 and Q3 2026 (May to early August), reaching the equivalent of nearly 2 million Nvidia H100 GPUs, according to estimates from Epoch AI. The research group says the jump follows three quarters in which shipments grew between 2% and 22% per quarter.

Key points

Epoch AI estimates Broadcom TPU compute shipments doubled from fiscal Q2 to Q3 2026 to nearly 2 million H100e.
TPU unit volumes rose about 65% to roughly 800,000 chips, with the rest of the gain from a shift to more powerful chips.
TPU v7 makes up the vast majority of shipments, and TPU v8i entered production in Q3, at about 11% of TPU compute.
Epoch assumes Broadcom sells chips rather than racks; if half of revenue were rack-based, its volumes would be about 30% too high.
Epoch puts Anthropic at around 40% of Q3 TPU revenue, within a 30, 50% range.

What Epoch AI estimates

Epoch AI puts Broadcom's Q3 FY26 TPU compute shipments at 1,965,979 H100-equivalents (H100e), with a 90% confidence interval of 1,567,748 to 2,350,392. In the previous quarter, Q2 FY26, the estimate was 961,591 H100e.

Unit volumes rose by about 65% quarter over quarter to roughly 800,000 chips, while compute output doubled. According to Epoch, this reflects a shift in the production mix toward more powerful chips.

Epoch says TPU v6e accounted for most TPU compute through fiscal Q4 2025, but TPU v7 now makes up the vast majority of shipments and delivers about 2.5× the performance of the v6e. TPU v8i also entered production in fiscal Q3 2026 and delivers about 2.2× the performance of the v7. Epoch estimates the v8i made up about 11% of TPU compute in the quarter.

Google designs the high-level TPU architecture, while Broadcom handles physical design and supply logistics, including procuring memory and working with TSMC on fabrication. Epoch says Broadcom currently oversees virtually all TPU production, although MediaTek is expected to ramp its production of TPUs by the end of 2026 and into 2027.

How the numbers are derived

The estimates come from Epoch's AI Chip Sales hub, which works from Broadcom's reported AI semiconductor revenue. In fiscal Q3 2026, Broadcom reported $16.7 billion in AI semiconductor revenue. CEO Hock Tan said on the earnings call that custom accelerators made up 73% of it, about $12.2 billion.

Epoch's median estimate places 92% of that XPU revenue as TPUs. It converts the revenue into chip volumes using an estimated per-chip price based on a bill-of-materials cost model. The resulting volumes include TPUs shipped to Anthropic as well as to Google. Broadcom began shipping TPUs for Anthropic in Q3 2026.

The racks versus chips question

Epoch's analysis assumes Broadcom's TPU revenue comes from selling TPU packages rather than complete racks. This matters because racks also include CPUs, system memory, networking, power and cooling. Epoch says that if Broadcom booked revenue on finished racks, its revenue per TPU would be about twice Epoch's chip price.

SemiAnalysis estimated that 400,000 Ironwood TPUs for Anthropic were worth about $10 billion in finished racks, or about $25,000 per TPU. Epoch's median TPU v7 price in Q3 is ~$13,000. If 25% of Q3 TPU revenue had been booked at rack value, Epoch's chips-only estimate would be about 14% too high. If half had been, it would be about 30% too high.

Statements in 2025 pointed toward rack sales. In September 2025, Broadcom said its fourth XPU customer had placed “over $10 billion of orders of AI racks based on our XPUs,” and in December 2025 it named that customer as Anthropic and called the deal “a real system sale.” Later evidence points the other way, according to Epoch:

On the fiscal Q2 2026 call in June, Hock Tan said, “No racks. It is all a chip business only.”
Broadcom's filings say that in June 2026 it arranged for Apollo to take on certain agreements to purchase AI racks, along with the related lease agreements with the customer. Broadcom backstops up to about $29 billion of the lease obligations.
Of $20.8 billion in Q3 hardware revenue after subtracting VMware license revenue, $19.9 billion shipped to Asia Pacific, where TPU racks are assembled. Americas hardware revenue was $0.46 billion, down from $0.73 billion in Q2.
Sales to one distributor rose from 42% of revenue in Q2 to 50% in Q3, an increase of roughly $5.5 billion, which roughly matches the ~$5.5 billion increase in XPU revenue.

Epoch still flags uncertainty, noting that Broadcom's filings describe its products as including “in some cases, racks.”

Anthropic's share and what it means

Broadcom does not disclose revenue from Anthropic. Epoch assumes all TPU revenue before Q3 came from Google and extends Google's spending trend. Its TPU revenue estimate grew 12, 26% per quarter over the previous four quarters. Applied to Q2, that implies Google spent roughly $6.0, 6.8 billion in Q3. Subtracting this from Epoch's Q3 TPU revenue estimate of about $11.2 billion leaves around $4.4 - $5.2 billion, or around 40% of TPU revenue attributable to Anthropic. Epoch uses a range of 30, 50% to allow for uncertainty.

For observers of AI compute supply, the estimate suggests TPU output scaled sharply in a single quarter, helped by Anthropic's addition as a Broadcom customer and by newer, faster chips. The figures are modeled estimates rather than reported shipments, and their accuracy depends in part on whether Broadcom books chip or rack revenue.