ASPI analysts warn China's Mazu weather AI could serve military ends abroad

What Mazu is and where it operates

The Mazu AI Weather Forecasting System is managed by the China Meteorological Administration. Its name comes from the traditional protective goddess of seafarers, which the authors say gives China's technological outreach a Chinese cultural identity and presents the country as a reassuring presence.

According to the authors, the service combines meteorological satellite observations, supercomputing and AI with ground stations, equipment and training so that host countries can monitor local weather. In August, the meteorological administration said customised Mazu systems had been installed in Pakistan, Ethiopia, Jordan, Sri Lanka, Mongolia and Djibouti and elsewhere. In Pakistan, five China-supplied weather stations reportedly transmit real-time observations to Mazu.

The administration's list also included Solomon Islands, which the authors flag as a particular concern for Australia. In July 2023, Solomon Islands signed a memorandum of understanding with China on disaster and emergency response plans, including early warning systems and cooperation on remote sensing. Papua New Guinea also uses forecasting services from China and exchanges weather data with it, although no local Mazu facility has been installed there.

At the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai in July 2026, Xi Jinping pledged to expand Mazu to 30 countries in the next five years.

Why weather data matters to militaries

The authors argue that civil authorities are not the only ones interested in the weather. They say it affects military operations in many ways, including which reconnaissance or surveillance equipment is used and whether an operation can succeed. Atmospheric conditions affect homing sensors and anything that flies, including missiles. Wind drives sea states, which influence the navigation decisions of warship commanders, while wave noise helps hide submarines. A sea-state forecast can help the commander of a diesel submarine decide when to recharge its batteries.

They add that the better Mazu's forecasting becomes, the higher its military as well as civilian value, and conclude that the Chinese armed forces are surely closely involved. They also say it is at least plausible that the stations could be used for other purposes, such as collecting radio intelligence, and that host countries may know little about what is connected to the antennas or exactly what is sent back to China.

One overt military link, they write, is the system's use of Fengyun series weather satellites, developed by the state-owned civil and military space contractor China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, particularly its subsidiary Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology (SAST). The latest model is the Fengyun 4. The US and Japan have sanctioned SAST for its weapons research and aerospace development. The system's space-weather forecasting, which uses several Feng series meteorological AI models to predict solar and geomagnetic phenomena that can disrupt satellites, navigation and radio links, also warrants scrutiny, they say.

Dependency and the risk of lock-in

Beyond the security question, the authors point to a familiar risk of China achieving a monopoly and local influence in host countries. Relying on China for software, updates, repairs and specialist expertise, those governments would have little control over the output, and changing systems would be expensive and disruptive. The authors compare this with the pattern seen in various countries' reliance on Chinese telecommunications equipment.

They acknowledge that Indo-Pacific nations struggling with real-time forecasting of floods and cyclones have understandable reasons to accept what China describes as a global public good. The countries they name as hosts have all signed up to the Belt and Road Initiative.

Recommended response for Australia and partners

The authors say Canberra and regional capitals should act while recipient governments still have options, and propose three immediate steps:

• Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs, the Bureau of Meteorology, the Department of Defence and the National Intelligence Community should jointly assess Chinese-supported weather installations and agreements with Pacific partners.
• The issue could be raised in discussions among the Quad members, Australia, India, Japan and the United States, if it is not already.
• Australia should work with like-minded partners and the World Meteorological Organization, which partnered with the China Meteorological Administration at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai in 2025 and 2026, to increase awareness and transparency of Mazu AI. This could include funding equipment and technology audits so host governments control credentials and data-sharing agreements and can change suppliers without losing essential services.

The piece is an opinion article. The Strategist notes that opinions are the authors' own, not ASPI's. Hoja is a China analyst and Bassi is executive director at ASPI.