Ayre Index: AI Gains Could Split Commonwealth Nations by $360 Billion
A new study from Ayre Think Tank warns that artificial intelligence could widen the gap between rich and poorer nations, estimating a $360 billion difference in potential economic gains between the best-prepared Commonwealth countries and those lagging behind. The Ayre Index was unveiled at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda.
- The Ayre Index covers 732 million people aged 15 to 29 across all 56 Commonwealth member states.
- Only 15 countries met the benchmark for youth AI readiness, with Singapore ranked first and Malawi and Lesotho last.
- Under the middle scenario, the gap in potential economic gains is $360 billion: $389.2 billion for the 15 ready countries versus $29.2 billion for the other 41.
- In Nigeria, about 90% of surveyed young people expected to use AI within a year, but the country scored 0.8 out of 10 on conventional digital capability.
- The study says skills, affordable connectivity, routes into employment and entrepreneur support will decide whether AI narrows or widens divides.
Only 15 of 56 countries meet the readiness benchmark
The Ayre Index examined conditions facing 732 million people aged 15 to 29 across all 56 Commonwealth member states. According to the study, only 15 countries met its benchmark for youth AI readiness.
Under the study's middle scenario, those 15 nations could see a combined $389.2 billion increase in the level of their economies after 10 years. The other 41 countries could see $29.2 billion. The resulting $360 billion gap is twice the size of the $174 billion in development aid given by the world's major donor countries last year, the study says.
Singapore topped the rankings, followed by Malta, Australia, Britain and Canada. Malawi and Lesotho finished last. Among the Commonwealth's 21 African members, only Mauritius, South Africa and Nigeria reached the benchmark.
Connectivity alone does not create opportunity
The research suggests that installing networks does not automatically create opportunity. In Togo, 4G coverage reaches almost everyone, yet fewer than half of young people report using the internet. In Malawi, electricity reaches a fifth of the population.
Gaps also appear where enthusiasm is high. About 90% of young Nigerians surveyed expected to use AI for work or education within a year, but Nigeria scored just 0.8 out of 10 on measures of conventional digital capability.
Meeting the benchmark does not guarantee jobs either. South Africa qualified, but unemployment stood at 46.3% among its young labour force.
Data gaps and a call for action
The study drew on 1,128 sources, but it also exposed how little comparable evidence exists about young people's actual AI capabilities in some countries.
Calvin Ayre, the entrepreneur and philanthropist who founded the think tank behind the index, said: "AI is going to change how we work, how we do business and how wealth is created. Nobody can afford to be complacent." Governments, he said, must give young people the skills and opportunities to succeed.
What it means for governments and young people
The study's central warning is that access alone is insufficient. According to the research, skills, affordable connectivity, routes into employment and support for entrepreneurs will determine whether AI creates new businesses and better jobs, or reinforces existing economic divides.
For policymakers in Commonwealth countries, the findings point to investment beyond infrastructure, as the Togo and Malawi examples show. The figures are scenario-based estimates from the think tank, and the study itself notes that comparable evidence on youth AI skills is thin in some countries.
