AI boom could widen gap between rich and poor nations by $360 billion, study says
Artificial intelligence risks deepening the divide between wealthy and poorer nations, according to a new study from the Ayre Think Tank. It calculates a $360 billion difference in potential economic gains between the Commonwealth countries best prepared for the technology and those lagging behind.
- The Ayre Index finds a $360 billion gap in potential AI gains between prepared and lagging Commonwealth countries.
- Only 15 of 56 member states met the benchmark for youth AI readiness.
- Singapore ranked first; Malawi and Lesotho ranked last.
- Of 21 African members, only Mauritius, South Africa and Nigeria met the standard.
- The study says skills, affordable connectivity and job pathways matter more than access alone.
What the Ayre Index measured
The Ayre Index was presented at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda. It examined the living conditions of 732 million people aged 15 to 29 across all 56 member states. The study drew on 1,128 sources, but it also showed how little comparable evidence exists on young people's actual AI skills in some countries.
Only 15 countries met the benchmark set for youth AI readiness. In the study's middle scenario, those nations could see an increase in economic output totalling $389.2 billion after ten years. The remaining 41 countries could see $29.2 billion.
The resulting gap of $360 billion is twice the $174 billion in development aid that the world's main donor countries provided last year, according to the study.
Who leads and who trails
Singapore topped the ranking, followed by Malta, Australia, the United Kingdom and Canada. Malawi and Lesotho came last.
Of the Commonwealth's 21 African members, only Mauritius, South Africa and Nigeria reached the required readiness standard.
Access alone is not enough
The research suggests that installing networks does not automatically create new opportunities. In Togo, 4G coverage is available almost everywhere, yet fewer than half of young people say they use the internet. In Malawi, one fifth of the population has access to electricity.
Enthusiasm does not close every gap either. About 90% of young Nigerians surveyed expect to use AI for work or education within a year, but Nigeria scored only 0.8 out of 10 on traditional digital skills.
Meeting the benchmark does not guarantee jobs. South Africa met the requirements, yet unemployment among young workers stood at 46.3%.
What it means
Calvin Ayre, the entrepreneur and philanthropist who founded the think tank behind the index, said: "KI wird die Art und Weise verändern, wie wir arbeiten, wie wir Geschäfte machen und wie Wohlstand geschaffen wird. Niemand kann es sich leisten, selbstzufrieden zu sein." In English, he said AI will change how people work and do business and how wealth is created, and that no one can afford complacency. Governments, he said, must give young people the skills and opportunities to succeed.
The study's central warning is that access on its own is not sufficient. Skills, affordable connectivity, routes into employment and support for entrepreneurs will determine whether AI creates new businesses and better jobs, or reinforces existing economic inequalities.
