OpenAI Revenue Report Pulls Semiconductor Stocks Off Their October Highs

A strong start, then a reversal

According to the Stock Preachers commentary, semiconductor equities began October on firm footing. The iShares Semiconductor ETF advanced for five consecutive sessions, and the sector's largest company reached a record high. Sentiment changed on Thursday, when the Financial Times report on OpenAI's revenue appeared.

The commentary says semiconductor valuations are closely tied to expectations for AI infrastructure spending, so a lower revenue figure for a leading AI company weighed on the group. The pullback follows a period of substantial gains: the PHLX Semiconductor Index was up 73% year to date as of late September, and several of the sector's largest constituents have recorded triple-digit gains in 2026.

Macro factors added pressure midweek. Higher long-term Treasury yields and a rise in crude oil prices hit the group, as higher discount rates tend to weigh most on companies valued on long-term growth expectations, the commentary says.

TSMC, Nvidia and Intel: Terafab in focus

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM) shares reached a record high on October 5 after Elon Musk confirmed early-stage discussions about a role for the company in his planned Terafab chip complex in Texas. He called them "just discussions." On October 8 TSMC reported September revenue of NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% from a year earlier and down 0.6% from August. Revenue for the first nine months of 2026 reached NT$3.90 trillion, up 41.1%.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) also hit a record high on October 5, bringing its year-to-date gain to approximately 24.8% and its advance since the August 26 earnings report to approximately 14%. The commentary notes that on September 28, when chip shares fell on AI safety concerns, NVIDIA rose after announcing a $150 billion share buyback authorization and releasing two open-source tools designed to help control AI agents.

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) shares declined on October 5 after Musk indicated TSMC could take part in Terafab, a project Intel joined as a partner in April. On October 8 Musk said his companies will build and operate the Texas complex and that another chipmaker could at most sublease part of the site. Intel has said it will remain involved, though the scope of its role has not been finalized. Even so, its shares were up approximately 215% year to date as of the October 5 close.

Arm in court, Micron under pressure

Arm Holdings (NASDAQ: ARM) shares declined during a five-day jury trial in federal court in Wilmington, Delaware. Qualcomm alleges that Arm breached their licensing agreements and sought to undermine Qualcomm's dealings with Meta Platforms. Arm denies the claims. The case went to the jury on October 9, and the judge has not yet ruled on whether a clause that could let Qualcomm stop paying royalties for five years is enforceable. Arm reports earnings on November 4.

Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) shares fell alongside other memory producers, even though Rosenblatt raised its price target to $1,900 from $1,500 on October 6, citing a beat-and-raise quarter and the potential for buybacks. Memory producers had advanced with the broader group in early October before sentiment turned later in the week.

What it means for the market

The week shows how sensitive chip stocks have become to signals about AI demand. A single revenue figure for OpenAI was enough to shift sentiment after a 73% year-to-date run for the sector, according to the commentary. Company-specific issues, including the Terafab uncertainty and the Arm trial, also shaped performance within the group.

The publisher states that the piece is market commentary and not financial advice, and that the outcomes of the legal proceedings and partnership discussions cannot be predicted.